As a great many people remain in denial over the coming of nuclear weapons to totalitarian states, it is with the unspoken and ill-considered proviso that a few nuclear weapons held by distant radical counties cannot really harm the vastness of the United States.
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What follows is an description of a type of nuclear attack that best fits the kind of warfare we face today… whatever the label du jour you may prefer, be it asymmetrical or unconventional warfare, terrorism or guerrilla tactics.
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The root aim of virtually all the recent terror attacks has been the disruption of the economies of the west along with the creation of political coercion to one degree or the other. The attack on the World Trade Center focus was on our economic financial functions as well as travel. Since then, various modes of travel have been targeted… not only because they are amongst the most vulnerable but because they generate a lasting economic ripple effect as well as heightening unease within the west.ÂÂÂ
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If one considers that the western economic engines are the strategic targets, then the seldom-discussed side effect called EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) from a series of atmospheric nuclear detonations would prove significantly efficacious and the nuclear weapons used to produce the effect will never even have to reach a specific ground target with accuracy.ÂÂÂ
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EMP as a weapon has been discussed and analyzed many times before, but not publicly as an integral part of an asymmetrical sneak attack.ÂÂÂ
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The gist of the various EMP scenario analyses inform us that as few as five weapons in the 10 Megaton range, properly deployed would wholly incapacitate the US electrical grid. But this also includes virtually every other system that is even more vulnerable… such as the entire communications network (including radio and television), GPS and all satellite-dependent systems, most computers and ground transport within range that has an electronic ignition system. How will you even get your money out of the bank? The ubiquitous credit card? Useless. How will a business even ring your purchase? Business will grind to a halt, aircraft must land (if they can still fly… think ‘fly-by-wire’). The list is much longer than you think because our many, if not most of our societal systems are inextricably interdependent on electronics and communication.
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If you wanted to knock the US out of business for a month or probably much more… EMP would do the trick. How long would it take to domestically manufacture and install the replacement parts for even half the affected electronic ignition systems alone?
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Let us assume that either the Iranians and/or North Koreans have managed to build five nuclear weapons of suitable size and have launch systems suitable to deploy them. It is critically important to understand that the manufacture of a successful intercontinental missile by the North Koreans, even if relatively inaccurate, creates a high possibility of the Iranians rapidly gaining access to that system. This probability is based on the already well-established cooperation and trade in missile technology/hardware between these two totalitarian states. But even if that does not come to pass, let us admit that Iran’s successful test of a submarine-launched missile (this week) when tied in with their six Russian-made Kilo-class diesel submarines or their brand new Iranian-made missile-capable diesel submarine ‘Nahang’ does present a credible means of stealthy launch.ÂÂÂ
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The blue-water Navy I served in will tend to scoff at the strategic threat of a such a short range platform, but thinking outside the conventional warfare box informs a reasonable person that lacking a state of open war, the Iranian’s have right of passage in international waters, perhaps to their putative ally Chavez, in Venezuela for an official visit that would take them right by US shores. Remember, we are discussing an unconventional approach. What warning was given for the 9/11 attacks?
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But all that is unnecessary… put a launch system into a properly prepared, sea-borne cargo container. Or just ship a few of Iran’s existing inventory of 25 missile-boats on the deck of a cargo ship bound for Venezuela… remember, those boats don’t have to have a hull in the water in order to launch.
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This is all significant in that we do not possess the ability to throw up defenses, let alone impenetrable ones, against missiles on the ascending portion of their trajectories, but we may be able to sometimes interdict them on the downward leg. This past week’s announcement of a successful test of a anti-missile system notwithstanding, that system is far from deployment in sufficient numbers to make a difference. The other tremendous concern is that even after it could be deployed, the basic geometry of these systems is very unfavorable for the intercept and destruction of a close-in launch because the maximum allowable response time is close to simultaneous. If you consider that by targeting the detonation near the highest point of the trajectory makes their launch vehicle nearly impervious to destruction, this projected tactic becomes much less unimaginable. President Reagan’s SDI (Star Wars) program begins to look far better in light of all this… but it is just the inevitable clarity of hindsight.
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But what about the cold war’s time-honored deterrent to nuclear war, MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)? Now comes the pertinent question of what practical utility does the threat of delayed nuclear destruction hold for persons and/or nations whose belief system makes guaranteed self-destruction a holy duty, highly honored in their society. A quick look at Iranian or North Korean internal propaganda should inform any reasonable person of the demise of MAD as a useful deterrent.
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So when considering what could be done with just a handful of nuclear weapons… the asymmetrical EMP scenario is on our plate whether we like it or not.
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This makes dealing decisively, rather than just talking with Iran and North Korea an undeniable priority in terms of both global stability and survival.
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Tom Marzullo is a physicist, educator and environmental specialist with experience in both Special Forces and submarine special operations. He has provided testimony to the US Senate on a variety of issues, including Iraq. In 1998, he pioneered the first victory of Internet journalism over manufactured stories within the conventional media in what became known as the Tailwind scandal, developed the early accurate strategic assessments of our current situation in Iraq as well as the prediction of beheadings used as propaganda tools by Islamic terrorists.
