Mea Culpa–Some Statistical Errors

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Mea Culpa by Rinaldo Del Gallo, III Esq.

I was contacted through the Berkshire Fatherhood Coalition through our website (BerkshireFatherhood.com) regarding an error. In my essay dated 3/20/07 I incorrectly stated, “children from homes with fathers are nine times more likely to graduate.” The statement should have said, “children from homes without fathers are nine times more likely to dropout.” The source was GlennSacks.com who stated, “According to the US Department of Health and Human Services, [children from fatherless homes] are five times more likely to commit suicide, nine times more likely to drop out of high school, and 32 times more likely to run away from home.”

Instead of saying “While whites are 1.76 times as likely to graduate than Hispanics from Pittsfield, MA schools” [which is true] and that “children from homes with fathers are nine times more likely to graduate,” [which is an error], Mr. Del Gallo should have said: “While the Hispanic dropout rate in Pittsfield schools is nearly twice that of whites [60% v. 29.8%], children in homes without fathers are nine times more likely to dropout from high school.” I repeat what was stated in the original essay, the National Principals’ Association states that 71% of high school dropouts come from fatherless homes. The nine times statistic has also been associated with the National Principal’s association, probably based upon guestimates of the fathersless population being at around 22% to 23%.

If divorcemag.com statistics are correct and 26% of all children come from fatherless homes [the sum of children with mom only or neither parent], and Pittsfield, MA School Superintendent Darlington is correct in that the national dropout rate is 30%, and the National Principal’s Association oft’ repeated number is correct in that 71% of all children that dropout are from fatherless homes, that would mean that in an average random sample of 100 children, 26 would be from fatherless homes and 74 would be from homes with fathers. Of that 100, 30 children will dropout from school. Of that 30 that dropped out, 71% will be from fatherless homes—approximately 21.3 children. Of the 30 that dropped out, 8.7 (29%) came from homes with fathers. Thus, in a random sample of 100 children, 26 will come from fatherless homes, of which 21.3 on average will dropout. Thus, the dropout rate among fatherless children is 21.3/26, which is approximately 82%. As for children with fathers, the dropout among 100 children would be 8.7/74= 12% The ratio of the 82% dropout rate with those without fathers to 12% with fathers which is 82/12 = 6.83.

I apologize to the public for this schoolboy’s error and thank this individual for pointing it out.

Rinaldo Del Gallo, III
Attorney at Law