Global Cooling?
Given the speed at which global warming proponents declare the end of the world when the “average” temperature rises a degree or two in a given week or month, it’s only fair to ask whether this latest news is indication of a global cooling trend:
The average temperature in April 2007 was 51.7 F. This was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 47th coolest April in 113 years. The temperature trend for the period of record (1895 to present) is 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.
Quick, run out and purchase your popsicle offsets…
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Stumble It!
Here is a dirty little secret that the climatologists want to keep under raps.
The inter-decadal World’s mean air temperatures between 1850 and the present have faithfully followed the changes that have occurred to sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is reasonable to conclude that they will continue to do so over the coming decades.
The North Pacific Ocean’s sea surface temperatures follow a natural cycle of warming and cooling that roughly repeats it self once every 50 – 70 years. This cycle is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and we are currently in a warming (positive) cycle that began in 1977. The PDO should flip into a negative (cooling) phase sometime before 2012.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Hence, logic tells you that, sometime in the next 5 years, the sea surface temperatures surrounding Hawaii should start cooling and the sea surface temperatures just to the south of the Aleutian Islands should start warming, as we slip into the next negative phase of the PDO. This will start a gradual cooling (or leveling) off of the world’s mean temperatures.
The effects of the PDO on the World’s mean temperatures are moderated by the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These temperature changes are well represented by variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Like the PDO, the AMO undergoes natural cycles of warming and cooling that last for roughly 60 to 80 years.
Since, 1995, we have been in a positive (warming) phase of the AMO. This has been reinforcing the warming caused by the PDO. However, the AMO will most likely flip back in a negative (cooling) phase sometime between 2025 and 2035. This means that sometime in the late 2020’s or early 2030’s, both the PDO and AMO will be negative and we will have a decade or two of generally cooler world mean temperatures.
So get out your woolies.