Why Open Borders is Likelier under McCain
Something interesting happens when a President of one party decides to forward the other party’s agenda. It almost always works. Take Bill Clinton in 1996. Needing some way to restore his popularity, Clinton reached out to the GOP and with Newt Gingrich, helped pass the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (”welfare reform”). That bill dramatically reformed the federal entitlement, limiting federal payouts to a total of five years for any individual. Why am I dredging up a fact over 10 years old? What’s the significance? Prior to the passage of welfare reform, twelve consecutive years under GOP Presidents – Reagan and HW Bush – could not produce this conservative feat. Yet a Democrat President in his first-term could. When Presidents forward the agenda of the opposing party, they often succeed because they’re able to win all the votes of the other party (who naturally support the measure) and also secure the votes necessary in his party to prevent a Senate filibuster and ultimately win passage of the bill.
In present-day 2008, we are considering our options for President. On the key issue of immigration, the positions of McCain and Obama do not appear to differ much. Ignoring McCain’s attempt to obfuscate his stance on the issue during the primary, McCain has been a strong if not the strongest proponent for amnesty amongst Republicans. In 2007, the Senate deliberated the “Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007″ – an attempt to legalize millions of illegal aliens. This bill stemmed from the “Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act” (S. 1033) which was co-sponsored by McCain and Ted Kennedy in 2005.
Once McCain gained momentum in securing the Republican primary, he didn’t miss a beat in going back to promoting amnesty. In the New York Times “McCain Says Immigration Reform Should Be Top Priority” (5/22/08), McCain said that “Senator Kennedy and I tried very hard to get immigration reform, a comprehensive plan, through the Congress of the United States. It is a federal responsibility….” According to the article, ‘McCain then asked others on the panels for suggestions about how to “better mobilize American public opinion†behind the notion of comprehensive immigration reform’.
To be sure, Obama is no better. Obama has said about illegals, “Yes, they broke the law. And we should not excuse that. We should require them to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for citizenship – behind those who came here legally. But we cannot – and should not – deport 12 million people.” In other words, Obama would at least support McCain’s measure for backdoor amnesty. However, when push comes to shove, Obama may have a difficult time in actually passing anything resembling amnesty. Let’s take a look at the Senate. The GOP has 49 seats, and while it may have fewer after the fall election, it is possible that the GOP can mount a filibuster. Most Republicans will likely oppose a Democrat President on this measure.
What if McCain pushes amnesty? First, almost all Democrats senators will support it. McCain, with his years in office, has enough connections to compel enough GOP senators to avoid a filibuster just as Clinton prevented Democrats from thwarting his welfare reform bill. Its worth nothing that when Clinton advanced welfare reform, he took to leading newspapers to advance his agenda. The megaphone of the President is powerful and when used effectively can change the public discussion in his favor. More than a few Democrats joined his lead. In the case of amnesty, conservative grassroots will likely be as effective as the liberal base was against Clinton- which is to say: sound and fury signifying nothing. The left-wing “Nation” magazine said the welfare bill was good for Clinton’s “image but not the people he’s trying to help”. Outraged progressives phoned their representatives. Yet the Senate passed the welfare reform bill 87-12. Could McCain’s advocacy of amnesty have the same results?
If Obama advances the leftist policy of amnesty, the lines will be drawn, and the opposition will be severe. However, if McCain were to advocate amnesty, Democrat congressmen will have the cover of a “Republican President” supporting the policy. With near unanimity of Democrats supporting and McCain’s pull over the senators you can count on two hands necessary to ensure the bill is voted on – amnesty will be a fait accompli.
Now let me add: if Republicans were being asked to vote for a bona fide conservative for President, this dynamic would not be relevant. George W. Bush, for example, may have flirted with the idea of a version of amnesty, but he ultimately did not press the issue. So it is certainly not the case that voting for a Republican gets you a Democrat agenda, or vice-versa. It is only the case that a Republican President is better able to deliver a liberal agenda (and a Democratic President deliver a conservative agenda) in the case where that President is willing to compromise or oppose the party principles.
Conservatives are in a bind in ‘08. We as Americans should have the right to a sovereign nationhood. Sovereign nations have a right to protect and defend their borders. Must we apologize for this? After the economy, many Americans view immigration as the most significant domestic issue. Yet neither candidate has a sensible position that wouldn’t reward law-breaking and illegal, costly abuse of social services. In talks with others, I’ve often heard the refrain “We have to do everything to defeat Obama- so we have to support McCain”. Be careful what you wish for. If amnesty is as unacceptable to you as it is to me, and if political precedent is any guide, the likelihood of amnesty coming to fruition is more likely under McCain. In fact, it would be a near certainty.
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Chris Taylor is a political writer based in Manassas, Virgina. In his limited spare time, Chris enjoys almost anything and everything outdoors- camping, biking, and fishing when he can get away.
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Stumble It!
July 17th, 2008 at 6:56 am
They’re both going to do it.
They’re just not going to discuss it in public.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Why have a general amnesty when the illegal immigrants are paying so much in social security taxes, without collecting benefits?
July 28th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
[...] Michelle Malkin » REPUBLICANS FOR OPEN BORDERS Oh snap. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Why Amnesty is Likelier under McCain than Obama | MND: News and Commentary Since 2001 Here, have some more weed for your bowl. [...]