I may not be an expert in international relations but I have seen The Hunt for Red October more than once. Soviet submarine captain Marko Ramius inspires his crew:
And once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess, against our old adversary… the American Navy.
For years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well.
But today, the game is different. We have the advantage.It reminds me of the heady days of Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin, when the world trembled at the sound of our rockets.
Well, they will tremble again at the sound of our silence.
In Georgia, under pressure from the West, Russia says one thing and does another. An effective silence in regard to fact and expectation has been created by misinformation. Russia, once more, plays the dangerous game of the Soviet era, causing Georgians to tremble at the sheer weight of their chutzpa-nik. A short-term advantage exists with a background of hard-won invitations to Russia to join the civilized world in its international relations. The West wanted the Cold War to be over and invested in the change.
That advantage has been spent, like an alcoholic with 2 bucks on cheap home-made wine, and Russia will undoubtedly wake up with a terrible hangover.
Georgia has resigned from the Commonwealth of Independent States, an organization fostering military and economic cooperation, with heads of other member nations predicting an irreparable crisis. Some Russian diplomats (so to speak) think Western nations should side with Russia, as the larger potential trading partner.
Well – nuh-uh! There are calls for expulsion of Russia from The European Council, G8, the WTO, and other organizations that at least symbolize prior efforts to bring them into the greater world community. Even the UN Security Council has demonstrated an ability to change since the “end of the Cold War.†It may be time to question the Russian Federation’s so-called “permanent†membership.
Political gains for the Putin crew at home, based on economic improvement, could vanish; as Russia is abandoned by its closest trading partners and watches the possibility of expanded trade with wealthier nations evaporate. Russian citizens may see their 1991 revolution as not entirely successful. If democratic elections prove unsuccessful, they may once again consider that “a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms are in the physical.â€ÂÂ
And what of the game of war? Since 2005, Georgia has been enrolled in the NATO Partnership for Peace and passed a non-binding resolution on NATO membership in January of this year. Membership has been delayed as some member countries hoped appeasement would help Putin’s attitude eventually cool and the move could be made a bit less tense. Now – what’s the point? Georgia’s dire need to be a member of the common defense network has been demonstrated – quite dramatically.
A dangerous game, indeed!
