Thanks.
I may not be an expert in international relations but I have seen The Hunt for Red October more than once. Soviet submarine captain Marko Ramius inspires his crew:
And once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess, against our old adversary… the American Navy.
For years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well.
But today, the game is different. We have the advantage.It reminds me of the heady days of Sputnik and Yuri Gagarin, when the world trembled at the sound of our rockets.
Well, they will tremble again at the sound of our silence.
In Georgia, under pressure from the West, Russia says one thing and does another. An effective silence in regard to fact and expectation has been created by misinformation. Russia, once more, plays the dangerous game of the Soviet era, causing Georgians to tremble at the sheer weight of their chutzpa-nik. A short-term advantage exists with a background of hard-won invitations to Russia to join the civilized world in its international relations. The West wanted the Cold War to be over and invested in the change.
That advantage has been spent, like an alcoholic with 2 bucks on cheap home-made wine, and Russia will undoubtedly wake up with a terrible hangover.
Georgia has resigned from the Commonwealth of Independent States, an organization fostering military and economic cooperation, with heads of other member nations predicting an irreparable crisis. Some Russian diplomats (so to speak) think Western nations should side with Russia, as the larger potential trading partner.
Well – nuh-uh! There are calls for expulsion of Russia from The European Council, G8, the WTO, and other organizations that at least symbolize prior efforts to bring them into the greater world community. Even the UN Security Council has demonstrated an ability to change since the “end of the Cold War.” It may be time to question the Russian Federation’s so-called “permanent” membership.
Political gains for the Putin crew at home, based on economic improvement, could vanish; as Russia is abandoned by its closest trading partners and watches the possibility of expanded trade with wealthier nations evaporate. Russian citizens may see their 1991 revolution as not entirely successful. If democratic elections prove unsuccessful, they may once again consider that “a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms are in the physical.”
And what of the game of war? Since 2005, Georgia has been enrolled in the NATO Partnership for Peace and passed a non-binding resolution on NATO membership in January of this year. Membership has been delayed as some member countries hoped appeasement would help Putin’s attitude eventually cool and the move could be made a bit less tense. Now – what’s the point? Georgia’s dire need to be a member of the common defense network has been demonstrated – quite dramatically.
A dangerous game, indeed!
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Zorik said,
August 15, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Findoc said,
Georgians have treated Osetians and Abhazians (ethnic minorities) as 2nd class citizens for centuries. There is no way on Earth these ppl will live under Georgian rule. Saakishvily is a nut-case who created a disaster: his death squads burned several dozen women and children in the Churrch of Virgin Mary, executed women hiding in their cellars, killed over 2000 Osetians in an attack started during the Olympics. Stalin, himself a Georgian, “gifted” Georgia with Osetia and Abhazia. There’s no way on Earth these ppl will subdue to Georagian or Western rule. They are farmers and warriors. ALL of the male population of the region, Dagestan, Kuban Cossacs and Chechens volunteerd to fight Georgia after its brutal attack against ostensibly its own cvilian population.
Russia’s response was measured and humane.
Bush’s rhetoric is strictly for the birds, counting on the stupidity of the American people mislead by the mass media and the feminist’s educational system.
The article of Roger F. Gay shows that he knows diddly squat, but opines nonetheless as a true “patriot” following the commander-in-chief, unfortunately for all of us — a moron.
August 16, 2008 at 4:03 am
Len Firewood said,
August 16, 2008 at 5:36 am
Roger F. Gay said,
In a larger perspective, Georgia is not Russian territory and Russia lacks legitimate grounds for getting involved in the conflict. They certainly lack legitimate grounds for invading Georgia.
To the extent that there are Russian citizens in those areas, with Russian passports, who prefer to live in Russia - the answer is obvious. They should go home rather than engaging in armed rebellion in a foreign land.
August 16, 2008 at 10:19 am
Findoc said,
With all due respect, what makes you an “expert” is that you ingested mucho popcorn watching “The Hunt for the Red October,” by your own admission. Haven’t you heard the old adage, “write only about things which know very well?” Apparently you don’t know diddly squat about this conflict, though popcorn filled you with some hot air.
What makes me an expert, in comparison with you, is that I read Russian, French, Georgian, German and Ukranian newspapers daily, I lived in Georgia, Abhazia, Osetia and Russia and I know personally many of the personalities involved in the conflict. A former captain of a Soviet atomic submarine, now a Wall Street trader, is a co-worker, so I had plenty of chances to hear about their submarine capabilities straight from the horse’s mouth, not from a stupid Hollywood movie.
I also know that the financial markets were apparently rigged just a week before the Georgia’s attack on S. Osetia , so gold and oil dropped to levels from which they could jump without an ensuing inflation panic. What about an unprecedented build up of US naval forces in the Persian Gulf, apparently ready to attack Iran, for which this bloody Georgian attack was supposed to cover? The neocon bloody fingerprints are all over the wiping out of the peaceful population of the S. Osetia’s capital city by the Georgian attack on the day the Olympics started. The Wall Street dropped Georgia’s rating because analysts know its president is a lunatic and George Bush’s puppet.
So, from the position of a somewhat more intimate familiarity with the facts and personalities rather than concoctions of the New Yeork Times or a stupid Hollywood movie, I see you as an arm-chair strategist whose only audience should be his wife… that is if there’s a gal out there able to endure your nonsense.
Russia can take over S. Osetia and Abhazia (parts of Russia for the last 300 years) any time, and there’s positively nothing anybody could do anything about it other than finger Russians from a good distance. Now that they are sufficiently pissed with execution of thousands of Osetian people and a few ethnic Russians they could take over Georgia in two-three hours, if they were so inclined.
As for the peoples of S. Osetia and Abhazia, they know quite well that under Georgia they are as good as dead, which Georgian’s president Saakishvili so ably demonstrated. They are not Georgians, they speak different languages, they fought the Turks to death for hundreds of years asserting their independence, and they will fight to death against Georgia to defend their autonomy, which they enjoyed under the Russian protectorate for hundreds of years.
Not everybody in this country is stupid enough to buy feminist’s bullshit, the New York Times’ concocted “news” or Pres. Bush’s moronic rhetoric. The recent poll showed that 75% of respondents out of several thousand see Georgia as an aggressor.
August 16, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Roger F. Gay said,
With regard to my article - Russia’s neighbors are condeming the act. The CIS is falling apart. There is serious talk about throwing Russia out of international organizations and they can forget the WTO. Reported today: Germany supports Georgian entry into NATO.
So far, I’m batting 1000. Maybe you should get your head out of those multiple daily newspapers and go see a movie.
August 17, 2008 at 11:19 am
Roger F. Gay said,
Richard Holbrooke, a career State Department official and President Clinton’s ambassador to the United Nations, “took it upon himself” to visit Georgia and find out what is going on.
Here is what he reported:
1. The South Ossetians were engaging in ethnic cleansing of Georgians in the province.
*What Mr. Holbrooke didn’t state is that Russia has been issuing Russian passports to the South Ossetians, providing the separatists aid and assisting in their provocations. This has been reported elsewhere.*
2. The government of Georgia went in militarily to intervene and put a stop to the ethnic cleansing.
3. This was the pretext of the Russian invasion.
4. The government of Georgia is NOT to blame for this; it is the victim of Russian manipulation and aggression.
5. Russia is doing this precisely because the government of Georgia is pro-NATO, pro-Western, pro-Democratic and has assisted the Bush administration in Iraq.
6. Some Russian units have obtained and are now wearing Georgian uniforms. They are burning Georgian wheat fields and destroying any heavy equipment they can find.
8. A Russian general stopped to have photographs taken on a tank, immediately under a statue of Stalin, in Stalin’s hometown of Gori.
August 17, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Roger F. Gay said,
August 17, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Toaster said,
August 19, 2008 at 3:32 am
Roger F. Gay said,
Anyway - if you’re looking for a response, just read the other comments - particularly responses to Findoc.
If you want a more in-depth discussion, starting with crude Russian propaganda, try here.
August 19, 2008 at 8:43 am
Toaster said,
I am not “looking” for a response.The whole tone of this thread is just plain wrong.I was just trying to point out that you seem to be anti russian and all you do is quote WESTERN media viewpoints.
“2. The government of Georgia went in militarily to intervene and put a stop to the ethnic cleansing.”
Anyone who actually believes that statement is braindead.
The Russians have held out their hand in friendship and the US has been doing nothing but gnawing on their fingers.BIG mistake.
August 19, 2008 at 9:04 am
Roger F. Gay said,
Besides that - they keep saying one thing and doing another - promising to leave Georgia and then going deeper into Georgia. Anyone who might have considered believing them - was stopped in their tracks by all the really really obvious lying.
We understand that Putin wants to return to the Soviet days - he’s been openly explaining that to the rest of the world for years, including formal speeches at the UN. If you don’t realize that’s his intention - then you are uninformed. And it ain’t gonna happen - as a result of Putin policy - you’ll just find yourselves waiting in bread lines again - poorer than ever. Russia is destroying itself.
But once again - all this has already been discussed here.
August 19, 2008 at 9:24 am
Roger F. Gay said,
August 20, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Roger F. Gay said,
August 22, 2008 at 4:30 am
Jim Peterson said,
I think American men need to beg Russian men to help them fight US feminism…possibly with some of the $trillions in new oil oney.
Randy Scheunemann, McCain’s lobbyist friend who is paid by Georgia (kickbacks for the US military funding that obviously never went to the Georgian military like it was supposed to), has openly stated that he wants Russia to cease to exist as a country.
What with Biden now on the Obama side…American men are in a REAL vice squeeze now.
August 24, 2008 at 12:46 am
Roger F. Gay said,
Russia is committing suicide.
August 24, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Roger F. Gay said,
August 28, 2008 at 3:18 am
Findoc said,
It’s really amazing to me how someone like yourself, admittedly with limited to zero knowledge of the region, its geography, history and chronology of the recent 72-hour war, would opine so passionately and with such conviction, acting a mouth-piece of the official propaganda machine… only because years ago they hammered into your head a few dogmas, such as Russia was the enemy.
I thought being a man comes with certain obligations, such as thoughtfulness, thoroughness and a sense of responsibility in your analysis. This one unfortunate article you defend with such clumsy dogmatism discredits everything else you may write.
Admitting yourself that you know nothing on the subject other than seeing the movie “The Hunt for the Red October,” makes it really grotesque.
And why the %$##*@! would American men even care about another Bush’s fiasco, especially so now before their quickly approaching further emasculation by the Obama-Biden ball-cutting political machine is beyond me!
I am no friend of Russia or Putin. Yet, in the global geopolitical game Putin won over Bush with a clear check-mate. More over, he did it from a position of overwhelming moral superiority and literally saved the two people from genocide.
Economic sanctions against Russia have been always stupidity and would bite our own nose in spite of our face, as America’s businessmen conveyed to the White House. Russia is a major market, and a major supplier of oil. Germany, France, Spain and Lithuania in G8 ruled out sanctions against Russia. Whatever the US comes up with, if any, is going to be unilateral, and as usual — stupid, killing our own already very vulnerable economy.
Sending 10 major US warships into the Black Sea to threaten Russia and risk WWW-III is again stupid and irresponsible, as only Bush’s or Clintonistas could do.
Instead of watching stupid Hollywood movies, you should read a classic, ‘The Quiet American’, by Graham Green, a smart Brit.
FinDoc
August 30, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Roger F. Gay said,
Certainly, it’s not incredible of me to recognize the importance of emerging democracies or stupid of me to recognize Russia’s efforts to stifle them. Russia’s near neighbors do not want to see the re-emergence of the Soviet Union any more than sane Americans or western Europeans. Georgia was Putin’s biggest mistake so far; and it doesn’t look like any of the Russian leadership has the brains to pull themselves out of the quick sand they’ve jumped into.
August 31, 2008 at 2:38 am
Roger F. Gay said,
September 4, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Findoc said,
The DOW Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, representing the US Economy, is down 22% since last November, and minus 6.5% since 1998. Not even Zero growth in 10 years! It’s (-6.5%)instead. Now, use a bit of logic before tossing mumbers and verbiage like “suicide.”
What peeves me is that the US just tossed another $1 billion of the taxpayer’s money, including mine, at re-Arming Georgia. Behind all this politycal postering and a flood of misinformation is the blood of 1600 civilians whom Georgian troops murdered in cold blood in their attack on Aug-8,2008. That’s not even counting wounded and misplaced.
September 5, 2008 at 5:23 am
Roger F. Gay said,
September 5, 2008 at 6:33 am
Roger F. Gay said,
September 23, 2008 at 1:16 am