Why John McCain is Losing
It’s not the economy. Sure – if the economy was better, it would be good for Republicans. Everybody knows that, which is why the McCain campaign could never bet too many chips on the economy as part of a winning formula. Sure, the Democrats – including Barack Obama and Joe Biden – did cause the financial industry meltdown but what does it matter? There is a Republican in the White House and it’s easier to imagine that presidents rule with magic wands than to learn the basics of the American democratic system, let alone learn the modern history of financial industry regulation. It may be just luck of the draw but if the McCain campaign banks on pulling far enough ahead on the economy to win he will lose.
As for the war, McCain may be right about everything – and certainly does have a commanding advantage in knowledge, experience, and wisdom. The country and the world would be far safer with John McCain as president. But remember when his advisor Charles R. Black Jr. spoke too candidly, saying that a fresh terrorist attack would be a big advantage to the McCain campaign. As easy as it was to take that comment the wrong way – Mr. Black was right. Americans are tired of war. Without a reminder that there is a real enemy bent on destroying the nation, it is just plain nicer to embrace the imaginary notion that it will all be fixed if we just schedule the changes we want. Would you like the War On Terror to end in victory within a year? Sure. As if terrorists respect our democratic choices.
The problem with the McCain campaign is that our war hero can’t find the battlefield. The big war being fought at home is a culture war with fundamental social, political, and economic ramifications. Too many Americans are being left on this battlefield and John McCain is AWOL.
Remember Sarah Palin? She lit a fire under the campaign when chosen as McCain’s VP running mate. She may have been single-handedly responsible for what has become known as the RNC convention “bounce.” An amazing bounce it was – particularly in the way that it lingered. It lingered in fact until it began to appear that Palin’s tenacity as a culture warrior was being reigned in. Going into battle with only the old McCain campaign strategy strapped to her back, she now continues the fight unarmed.
Is there a game-changer? I think there is, but it would take a real maverick to pull it off. McCain must break from what he previously thought was the safe position – throwing the garbage of federal mismanagement of social policy to the states. This view – outdated and wrong – was still ingrained heavily enough in the minds of Republican Party insiders that it is currently enshrined in the RNC Platform 2008. Denying Congressional and indeed – bipartisan – involvement in creating the problem by blaming “activist judges” isn’t good enough.
In areas of social policy that the Constitution left to the states and to the people, particularly where recent and heavy federal intrusion has been disastrous, it is time for the federal government to let go. The reasons for unconstitutional federal intrusion into family policy are known – pork, pork, and pork. And it has legally destroyed the institutions of marriage and family and decommissioned the Bill of Rights. (Related Article: A Dire Warning for Families from the RNC) With regard to our domestic policy, we don’t need to be a single, dictatorial, socialist super-state. We are better off – we know we are better off – in a republic in which civil rights are respected. In short, John McCain will have to break from the current view of the Republican Party enough to become a Republican.
In my view, such a transformation would give McCain his strongest chance of winning. The Palin bounce put the ticket in a poll position opposite where it is now. They were winning. For a lingering moment, we thought the culture war that has for decades pushed Americans farther and farther into the political fringe was to meet opposition. Be that opposition and you will have our support.
| More from Roger F. Gay
Stumble It!
October 5th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
McCain doesn’t have the brain necessary to oppose Democrats. He believes the Press legitimately praised him, when he sold out his fellow Republicans. McCain believes he is following Teddy Roosevelt when he lacks Teddy’s ability to tell Bryan his Cross of gold was crap. Roosevelt believed in the big stick; he threatened to beat his complaining harpies. McCain lacks the courage and the brains to confront Democrats. McCain hopes that his milquetoast opposition will be loved; when it only will be ignored.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:39 am
McCain is a senator who’s trying to get away with picking his issues and ignoring the ones that are a challenge.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Add to this his refusal to capitalize on Obama’s 20-year close relationship with a white America-hating black racist church and pastor, and with a 60’s radical terrorist. McCain will lose because he will not state The Things That Need To Be Spoken. He’s cornered and trapped by his own liberalism.
October 7th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
“Why John McCain is Losing.”
A prerequisite to becoming the President of the United States is being a good campaigner.
John McCains campaign for the Presidency is one of the worst I have ever seen. John McCain does not have the X Factor. He lacks presence. He lacks charisma. He does not adapt quickly. He does not think on his feet well. His team has no focus and has squandered opportunities to get out some good messages that they own.
John McCain has 35 years on the Senate floor. He has engaged in Senate debates. Yet he is being beaten by a guy with far less experience but who has presence, charisma, and who has a strong campaign team. Even McCains Vice Presidential pick has much better skills as campaigning. She has presence, wit, charisma, and a fighting spirit that shows through and is attractive to people.
John McCain comes off as an old tired man.
And that is not what people look for in their President.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
He’s spent years kissing every ass the Dems stuck in his face, and now he has the arrogance to demand my vote out of party loyalty? Ain’t happening, John McCain.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:42 am
All of the above.
Both campaigns are being run by marketing departments and the agenda is set outside the democratic process. What they’ve decided to call centrist, the ground both candidates want to be on, is way too far away from the traditional Republican Party base – i.e. conservatives. After the primary, Obama “changed” himself on several key issues to become McCain and left McCain with really – nothing to run on. It was a reversal of the McCain tactic to define himself early as being so far left as to be in Obama’s space. It’s a personality contest now. Smart move by the Obama campaign – just amazes me that he got away with it. (Oh the irony – Obama would be 4 more years of Bush)
McCain is a senator and his discussion and debate is a mix between things that would work in discussions with other senators and entirely missing opportunities to say something meaningful to the American people because he’s run by his marketing department – just pushing his brand no matter what the question is. It doesn’t help McCain that Obama can be on three sides of the same issue all in the same sentence and completely opposite what he said earlier and fill in the argument gaps by making things up and sounding authoritative and convincing when he does it. Obama reminds me of Johnnie Cochran as portrayed in a South Park episode delivering the Chewbacca defense. Ladies and gentlemen look at this picture of Chewbacca. It just doesn’t make any sense. I don’t make any sense. And it’s working for him. The old white guy doesn’t know how to respond to it. McCain is gonna lose.
I might have enough material to explain once again post 2nd debate how he could win. Not that I’m optimistic that the above pattern will change – but at least in theory – if he got real for a while and engaged in real democratic (small d) thinking – he could win. And if he did that, it would also be a great service to his country.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:24 am
McCain is going to lose. It was, maybe is…..not likely…but maybe is avoidable. Your last bit there Roger gets it best. In speaking to the voters there are things we/they will cling to, and things we will poo poo. He missed at least 2 or 3 HUGE opportunities last night to generate massive enthusiasm in the base, and sway votes undecided.
1. The issue of fining businesses and individuals over healthcare. He let that slip away with one mention, and a snide remark about the amount. American voters have the attention span of a goldfish. he needed to repeat ad infinitum about the “audacity of intrusion” these fines represent. he needed to offer a human face to it. Use an example, Mr and Mrs Jones from Broken Bow Oklahoma and their child….the child is healthy and etc etc. and if they dont buy him insurance they will get fines X dollars. he needed to explain the LIE about small businesses making less than 250,000.
2. Generally he had Obama a bit exasperated, and there was a tense revealing of his socialist tendencies manifesting. Obama was seething with the psuedo soft socialist fairness indignation….I saw it, others too, but the average voter missed it…but it was RIGHT THERE for McCain to emphasize. He needed to prod and prod on the government intrusion
3. A simple thing…..just ask how you cut taxes on someone who doesnt pay taxes. You make a person look idiotic…AND you PROVE its another big government handout. Most ofd the folks on the recieving end of the handout are Obama supporters anyway..no risk there. Bush asked that directly to either Kerry or Gore..I forget. But its stupid to say you will cut taxes on 95% of Americans. How do you “cut” zero? Easy….Rob Peter to pay Paul!
4. Finally, while its true the entire repetitive focus McCain THINKS sells on the war and security…Americans are simply not interested. He CANNOT win on that issue, period, even though he is correct. BUT last night someone tee’d him up w/ a great question….”will he consult the UN to protect Israel?”. McCain quietly muttered “no I wouldnt but lets talk about Iran and nukes” and then went into his standard speech about negotiating w/ them etc. Stupid move. He should have dwelt upon the UN. He should have listed off the absurdities of that goofy body, and stated with righteous indignation NO WE WILL NOT seek UN approval every time we have a problem and put our securioty in the hands of those who hate us. he should have further stated thet he KNEW Obama WOULD ask the UN. he should ahve said “folks please listenm to me opponent closely on this”…as it went down, Obama skillfully avoided the direct answer, which would have been, YES he would crawl to the UN.
I have to stop following this election lest I lose my sanity…what little I have. Seeing the lame brain “undecided” voters after, with pathetic wimp after clueless drama queen saying “well I thought he explained Change very well” or “he told me how he is going to help us” and that go unchallenged.
Its the very beginning of the end of the US. I’d like to think 4 years of him will prove that….but it will serve to solidify the ignorant votes that democrats need to win.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:52 am
We’re screwed.
October 8th, 2008 at 6:45 am
conservativation is right and this sets me up to explain how I’ve been right in my predictions of the outcome of every presidential election since J.F.K. BTW: I predicted this one months ago, and put it in writing on another website on June 27 – and didn’t change my prediction during the Palin bump.
McCain went in thinking he could go far enough left to cut into Obama support – so far left that he lost touch with his base and needed support from voters he has no chance of getting. And predictably, he has shown no interest in going after the pot of gold disinfranchised voters while at the same time matching his rhetoric on cleaning up Washington and cutting pork.
The worst thing of all is that we have two guys running for president – one will become president – and neither are Americans. I’m not returning to questions about where they were born. I mean – the nation, it’s fundamental definition, it’s Constitutional rule – is something they both oppose.
We hit the rocks already and either one of these guys will spend the next 4 years slamming other rocks on people’s heads.