Where in the universe is ET, The Extraterrestrial? Oxford’s Nick Bostrom hopes we never find out
In his article, Where Are They? Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing (PDF here), Oxford University’s Nick Bostrom has raised some very troubling questions.
According to Bostrom, one must wonder what to make of the apparent absence of intelligent civilizations in the universe: the statistical probabilities suggest the universe ought to be teeming with great varieties of Intelligent ETs.
In light of the universe’s great age and scope, it seems mathematically probable that, if the development of intelligent life happened on Earth, it’s likely to have happened somewhere else in the universe at some finite time in the past. And knowing what we know about how life evolves and spreads, ET ought to have strung the firmament with neon panoply ages ago.
But, still no sign of ET.
So Bostrom wonders — just how freakish can this be, given that the universe is flush with galaxies and habitable planets galore?
Bostrom thinks there must be gating factors — “Great Filters” that reap civilizations before they become spectacularly successful.
I have seen this idea before: Bill Joy referenced it his article, “Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us.” He was quoting Carl Sagan from his book, Pale Blue Dot:
It might be a familiar progression, transpiring on many worlds – a planet, newly formed, placidly revolves around its star; life slowly forms; a kaleidoscopic procession of creatures evolves; intelligence emerges which, at least up to a point, confers enormous survival value; and then technology is invented. It dawns on them that there are such things as laws of Nature, that these laws can be revealed by experiment, and that knowledge of these laws can be made both to save and to take lives, both on unprecedented scales. Science, they recognize, grants immense powers. In a flash, they create world-altering contrivances. Some planetary civilizations see their way through, place limits on what may and what must not be done, and safely pass through the time of perils. Others, not so lucky or so prudent, perish.
Bill Joy, Carl Sagan and Nick Bostrom all seem to issue a collective shudder of discomfort over the prospect of humanity’s impending encounter with our own advancing technology.
Somehow this dilemma reminds me of the Vorlons from the television show Babylon 5: an aging, advanced civilization finally realizes that they have outgrown their own galaxy — like fish who have outgrown the sea. Their exodus “beyond the rim” could be analogous to a fish crawling onto the land — or to angels ascending into heaven.
From the point of view of some highly advanced civilization of ETs, the cold comforts of our material, time-bound universe might seem about as inviting as a mud flat or a thermal vent.
Maybe the hidden answer to Bostrom’s question is that Intelligent Civilizations invariably discover Heaven, and once they do, they move there.
Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing
(PDF here),
Reference:
- Bill Joy: Why the future doesn’t need us
- nickbostrom.com
- http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf
- View at Technology Review (requires registration)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorlon
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_(Babylon_5)
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"…….. Does this mean that previously vigorous and aggressive civilizations become suddenly introspective and aware of their place in the universe? "
It is unlikely to be sudden although it would seem that 'tipping point' is a natural feature.
Aggression is a badly soiled term these days but involves quite a few positive aspects, and vigour need not be dampened when turned to more mental tasks. Introspection is an essential for consciousness but so it looking beyond, outward and upward. If God is within as well as everywhere, any approximation to completeness of knowing God would have to incorporate that inner aspect. The joining io streams and tributaries into the Ocean.
Just as a stream starts out vigourous, it can become calm and deep and wide near its joining with the sea.
For me, Bostrom's article raises a stomach-wrenching question.
(Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing)
Theodore Kaczynski and Osama Bin Laden are possessed by the very same question: Where are we going and what happens next?
I see no evidence whatsoever of Gorillas in the Mist on any horizon in my view.
But perhaps we are talking about the same thing.
The human concept of the Afterlife must have changed over time, from the first thought of an Inchoate Void, to an anthropomorphic conception of a Perfect Heaven.
I would guess the idea of Heaven reached critical mass right around the time Cro Magnon began to create idealized images of his environment.
But I think the situation raised by Dr. Bostrom is entirely valid.
Perhaps the solution is that Heaven is "Gorillas in the Mist" with hot showers and a wet bar. lol….
Reference Uncle Amfortas:
http://mensnewsdaily.com/2009/05/12/who-is-amfort...
And why not? We talk in speculation not sense built on the shifting sands of our limited experience. We talk of vast scales of time. A year-old human conceives it normal to shit in its nappy but just months later leaves babyhood and its habits behind ('scuse pun). It finds a better way and rarely goes back to doing that. We may not need to be hunters in later periods and the genes may well naturally select out. And what of a planetary creature that is herd rather than predator? Did you ever think that a tiger must get mightily pissed off that its food runs away? Just think how you would be if you had to chase down escaping cans of beans. We may be aggressive seekers but seeking does not need aggression, just desire and energy. Smile and drink from the cup.
Hello Amfortas –
So you say… "they evolve to Transcendence. "
Does this mean that previously vigorous and aggressive civilizations become suddenly introspective and aware of their place in the universe?
Uncle Amfortas, I don't see how this could be true. It would be as if tigers suddenly became vegetarians.
How could this be true? We are aggressive seekers. That is our way.
What else could spur a civilization on to discover the god-like powers of technology?
Why would ET suddenly change their colors and become Gorillas in the Mist?
I don't think this makes sense.
With all respect, Uncle.
Hello Amfortas –
So you say… they evolve to Transcendence.
Does this mean that previously vigorous and aggressive civilizations suddenly becomes introspective and aware of their place in the universe?
Uncle Amfortas, I don't see how this could be true. It would be as if tigers suddenly became vegetarians.
How could this true? We are aggressive seekers. That is our way.
What else could spur a civilization on to discover the god-like powers of technology?
Why would ET suddenly change their colors and become Gorillas in the Mist?
I don't think this makes sense.
With all respect, Uncle.
I would imagine that a really advanced life-form would find its wisdom. It would recognise its own being as a relflection and expression of an 'Ultimate' toward which it can turn, with deliberation and veneration, should it choose to. Those that do would not be turning to us or outward to anything. They would not be seeking a 'way out' from life, or even a simple furtherance of or interference in a seemingly automatic process, but a way forward for life. A Transcendance.
It is perhaps an issue that a Planet IS a life form in and of itself, that simply evolves to the point of self awareness in the vastness of Space and finds a way forward for its planetary consciousness.