Standing Down as Iran’s Power Struggle Unfolds

A strike on Iran, however limited, would push the current internal power struggle to a premature end that would not be in the US’ best interests – that is the message, whether intentional or not, of the recent “intelligence leak” that has provided the Obama Administration with justification for standing down with regard to Iran.

Earlier this week, the media had a field day with “intelligence leaks” suggesting that there is no imminent threat of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, apparently with the concurrence of Israel’s Mossad.

There are two things to be avoided in this discourse, the first being the obvious reality that intelligence is used to support policy decisions and “leaks” are one tool through which this is accomplished.

Also less important is the discussion on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which can be largely summed up by noting that civil nuclear programs can enrich uranium which can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iran can decide at any moment to pursue this path. It is an unknown that has been used to push public opinion in a number of directions.

Interestingly, the public (media) can so easily accept “intelligence leaks” that accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons but cannot accept a “leak” to the opposite because of an ingrained fixation on themes that are Cold War-ish in nature.

This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about containing Iran on a number of levels.

On a foreign policy level, the bloody window of opportunity to ensure that Syria will no longer be a part of Iran’s efforts to create a Shi’ite triangle of influence against Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in the region will do much to contain Iran.

On another level, though, foremost to containing Iran is understanding the internal struggle for power, when to harness the momentum and when to step back, recognizing how external actions could play out.

Despite his loud rhetoric, Washington should not be too quick to desire the final demise of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose demise for now seems nonetheless imminent. Presently, the situation in Iran is ideal for Washington: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in a stronger position than ever before, but that power comes at the price of responsibility and he must move with extreme caution in order to cement power ahead of presidential elections in 2013, where he hopes to see the final defeat of Ahmadinejad.

The 2 March parliamentary elections in Iran cemented what well-placed informants inside Tehran working forJellyfish Operations told Oilprice.com last summer: that plans were in the works to remove Ahmadinejad from power and that if politics did not do the trick, more nefarious means would be used. The first indication, they said, would be for Ahmadinejad to lose his grip over the oil ministry – a development that happened soon afterwards, gradually chipping away at hispower base ahead of parliamentary elections.

On 2 March, Khamenei managed to secure a solid majority for his conservative circle – a circle that largely controls the country’s foreign policy direction and its nuclear program. It is a majority that will shut out problematic reformist voices and continue to reduce the chances of opposition conservatives, including Ahmadinejad’s own support base, to realize a comeback.

The Supreme Leader’s power is not yet solidified, and there are circles of conservatives whose direction of support remains elusive, and for this reason, he must tread carefully, and so must the US and Israel.

 

The next decisive political event will be presidential elections in June 2013, by which date Khamenei will have had to ensure that all his ducks are in a row for the final demise of his rivals. Particularly, though not solely, Khamenei will seek to further chip away at Ahmadinejad’s power, and external influences could help him achieve that. Specifically, an attack on Iran, while Ahmadinejad is still president would do wonders to that end. A limited attack on Iran during Ahmadinejad’s tenure that targeted only its nuclear facilities, which would be most likely, could be absorbed and used as additional political ammunition for the Supreme Leader.

Importantly, Khamenei has other ducks to line up as well, and his new power means that his decisions and the consequences of those decisions will fall on his own shoulders and determine the allegiance of conservative circles whose support has not yet been decided – anargument laid out most astutely by Omid Memarian writing for opendemocracy.net.

For now, the US and Israel would do best to proceed with an equal amount of caution and avoid adding any velocity to Ahmadinejad’s demise. No one wants to see Khamenei’s conservatives solidify unrivaled power.

Source

4 comments for “Standing Down as Iran’s Power Struggle Unfolds

  1. docmusic
    2012-04-05 at 6:21 am

    WHY IRAN MUST GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS:

    Iran must get nuclear weapons. It must start flexing it’s nuclear
    muscles and when that reaches a tipping point the field will be equal and war
    will be justified. Right now leveling iran would be foolish because then the
    islamic  excuse would be they weren’t ready and garner pity. Not going to
    let that happen.

    Let iran start something and then watch what happens. The mushroom
    clouds will be so big all muslims will be able to see and meet their evil allah
    in a flash from all over the world. Do not under-estimate the wrath of the
    common non-muslim people on the planet. Muslims all over the planet will be
    hunted down and told to either get out of islam or die and meet their
    evil-allah post haste. This is not some day-dream .this will actually happen
    when iran and saudi arabia and Libya and all these islamic countries stop
    funding islamic insurgencies because their source of income is shut down by a
    war they have started and foolishly do not know how to end. Islam is not known
    for it’s logic. When the petrol money taps are shut down non muslims will be
    unforgiving in the bite back to islam. This will happen. Too many non-muslims
    will take the law into their own hands and will do what needs to be done. Islam
    will be on the run but will be hunted down and expunged from the planet. For
    this to happen iran has to have nuclear weapons first. When everything is in
    place their reactors will be their deaths in the millions. but the real
    clean-up will start outside Iran. Europe and Russia will lead the west and
    India and Australia will do the floor-wipe and all small islands and china will
    do it too. Right now there are muslims gathering in south America. let them
    gather. south Americans are merciless. they might be drug lords but they know
    evil is amongst them and will expunge it.

    This planet is totally fed up of this evil islamic nonsense cult.

    Hence Iran not only has to get nuclear weapons BUT has to use them
    !!!

     ISLAM IS RABID. Islam labels people who are all alike
    differently and builds walls separating them instead of bringing them together.

    Islam glorifies death by calling  its murderers the soldiers
    of allah. Islam preaches superiority of the “we” and inferiority of
    the “other.” it is a creed steeped in superstition, demands blind
    obedience to authority, and sanctions just about every form of freedom.
    Everything in islam is in black and white. One is either muslim — good — or
    non-muslim — bad. Men are superior; women are subservient. This life is
    worthless and should be offered for the pleasure of allah as defined by the
    evil clergy.

     Islam is a creed of a primitive age. It is fixated in time
    and place; it harbors the ambition of taking the 21st-century world back fourteen
    centuries and ruling it by its dogma of intolerance, injustice, and death. Yet
    islam is not only an obsolete vestige of a defunct era, but itself is an
    infinitely fractured belief that can hardly put its own home in order. The
    numerous islamic sects are at each other’s throats; sub-sects and schools
    despise one another as much as they hate the non-muslims. Hatred, not love,
    drives islam.

     We have to try and avoid the yoke of islamic slavery and its
    blinders that imprison a billion and half people by walls of superstition,
    hatred of others, and celebration of death.

     It is distressing to witness islam making headway in the
    traditionally non-islamic lands. Masses of brainwashed faithful, semi-literate
    muslims, badly underserved in their own native lands, are moving to countries
    where the “infidels” welcome them with material wealth denied to them
    in their own homeland, as well as the liberty to subvert the very societies
    that give them refuge.

     “you have the right to believe in stones
    brother, but not the right to throw them at me.”

    Get your facts
    right girls and boys .islam is not a religion. islam is a cult. In the pure
    definition of a robber cult. Ever wondered why they hate dogs ?

    Because dogs
    can sense thieves and evil…and mohammad was both plus a pedophile plus a rapist
    plus too much evil to list here.

    Started by a
    mass murderer and a legendary pedophile. if you still do not know this
    fundamental fact about islam it is not your fault. but you are starting to
    learn. welcome to the world-wide awakening on the islam cult. even Muslim men
    are starting to realize in their born into the islam cult imprisoned states
    what muslim women always knew behind their burkhas and scars but are too scared
    to say it .islam is evil. And evil is rising.

    Mother nature
    is trying her level best to eradicate islam from her body but it’s taking too
    much time.. Maybe we should give her a helping hand ..after all she taught us
    the secrets of the atom.. Time to use the atomic stuff to eradicate this evil.
    Once and for all. Let us give mother nature a helping hand before all her body
    gets covered with the islamic eczema and she has to wear a burkha…god forbid.

                  

    The dirtiest and
    filthiest stone in the world is in mecca.

    The faster we get rid of islam the better it is for all of us . Think of all
    the money we’ll save..

    A group of
    muslims is called “a fester of muslims.”.

    Let
    them build the mosque at ground zero. Taller than the towers. it’s fine. let
    bark Hussein oh!bama build a mosque on the white house lawns.. Taller than the
    white house. it’s fine. let prince Charles build one on the palace lawns.
    taller than the palace. it’s fine. let the pope build a mosque on the Vatican
    grounds. taller than the Vatican building. it’s fine .. The more mosques the better and the taller they are the better.. That
    is the only way common people will start seething at intrusive and evil islam.
    I predict that within a 100 years there will be no mosques left in this world
    and there will be no islam on the planet because saudi arabia and the muslim
    countries will be wiped out by the anger of the rest of the planet’s non muslim
    people. Islam is in it’s death swirl. but it is dying with a lot of blood and
    shouts. but it is definitely dying.. The mask of religion it has been hiding
    behind will soon be lifted off by the courts around the world.. People
    including muslims who actually think out of the box of islam are starting to
    see islam for what it is. Islam is a robber cult started by a women-hating mass
    murderer and a legendary pedophile amongst other things. Islam’s days are
    numbered.. Let us help them build their mosques so we can pull them down
    en-masse. Their daggers are out but we have our bulldozers and our logic.
    Do not be afraid to call islam evil or dirty or filthy or gutter creed slime.
    The koran calls all other faiths and people and colors very dirty names . Black
    people are raisin-heads and only to be slaves even if muslim in filthy islam.
    Jews are pigs and monkeys according to creepy islam. And the list is endless.
    Read it for yourselves. Go ahead feel free .check out who you are in the gutter
    slime of islam. These dirty degenerate terms were cooked up on a daily basis by
    that total PSYCHO mohammad in the desert heat around nothing but sand and lots
    of spare time. moha-mad boy is the classic textbook case of an idle mind and
    hands being the devil’s workshop.

    Excessive praying is a sign of laziness.
    islam has no prayer actually. islam has just a bunch of slogans about a cooked
    up evil nut called allah who’ll kill them if they didn’t and how stupid everyone
    else is. if islam had not been cooked up and mo-boy had not had such an active
    and evil imagination arabs would have petered out and got lost in the testicles
    of decent men. but this did not happen and islam is now such a problem because
    decent men have been deceived by it . the flashpoint is being reached. dark
    times are coming. decent men will have to fight too. can you imagine this
    lovely planet without islam. islam is a heritage vandal. like a rampant
    genetically defective monkey in a china shop. and rabid to boot. think of all
    the cultures of majestic india left in place instead of this mess you see in
    the name of murderers . real majestic india is and was pre-islam vandalism.
    think of beautiful europe if these muslim monkeys had not been invented in the
    desert heat and dust .think of all the buddhist art in stone islam has deprived
    us of appreciating. the world trade centre was magnificent. destroyed by islam.
    according to islam only arabic scribblings is art and the bigger allah is
    written the more beautiful it is …..yeah sure ! islam needs to be put to sleep.
    i can’t imagine the blood-shed but it will have to happen.
    primitive man will surface from modern man to challenge and lance once and for
    all the primitive cult of islam at it’s own gutter level. islam is the next
    small pox this planet has to eradicate. once islam is out of the planetary
    system pc will once again be cool and good manners. watch !

    The spreading of Islam by the sword, which by some estimates left 270 million
    non-muslims like you and me dead and millions more like us enslaved over the
    past 14 centuries, is a historical fact that is sanitized from most public
    school and university textbooks.
    The tolerance of Islamism intolerance is not tolerance but cultural suicide.
    Because Muslim men don’t see enough of women, little boys begin to look awfully
    pretty.

  2. docmusic
    2012-04-05 at 6:21 am

    WHY IRAN MUST GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS:

    Iran must get nuclear weapons. It must start flexing it’s nuclear
    muscles and when that reaches a tipping point the field will be equal and war
    will be justified. Right now leveling iran would be foolish because then the
    islamic  excuse would be they weren’t ready and garner pity. Not going to
    let that happen.

    Let iran start something and then watch what happens. The mushroom
    clouds will be so big all muslims will be able to see and meet their evil allah
    in a flash from all over the world. Do not under-estimate the wrath of the
    common non-muslim people on the planet. Muslims all over the planet will be
    hunted down and told to either get out of islam or die and meet their
    evil-allah post haste. This is not some day-dream .this will actually happen
    when iran and saudi arabia and Libya and all these islamic countries stop
    funding islamic insurgencies because their source of income is shut down by a
    war they have started and foolishly do not know how to end. Islam is not known
    for it’s logic. When the petrol money taps are shut down non muslims will be
    unforgiving in the bite back to islam. This will happen. Too many non-muslims
    will take the law into their own hands and will do what needs to be done. Islam
    will be on the run but will be hunted down and expunged from the planet. For
    this to happen iran has to have nuclear weapons first. When everything is in
    place their reactors will be their deaths in the millions. but the real
    clean-up will start outside Iran. Europe and Russia will lead the west and
    India and Australia will do the floor-wipe and all small islands and china will
    do it too. Right now there are muslims gathering in south America. let them
    gather. south Americans are merciless. they might be drug lords but they know
    evil is amongst them and will expunge it.

    This planet is totally fed up of this evil islamic nonsense cult.

    Hence Iran not only has to get nuclear weapons BUT has to use them
    !!!

     ISLAM IS RABID. Islam labels people who are all alike
    differently and builds walls separating them instead of bringing them together.

    Islam glorifies death by calling  its murderers the soldiers
    of allah. Islam preaches superiority of the “we” and inferiority of
    the “other.” it is a creed steeped in superstition, demands blind
    obedience to authority, and sanctions just about every form of freedom.
    Everything in islam is in black and white. One is either muslim — good — or
    non-muslim — bad. Men are superior; women are subservient. This life is
    worthless and should be offered for the pleasure of allah as defined by the
    evil clergy.

     Islam is a creed of a primitive age. It is fixated in time
    and place; it harbors the ambition of taking the 21st-century world back fourteen
    centuries and ruling it by its dogma of intolerance, injustice, and death. Yet
    islam is not only an obsolete vestige of a defunct era, but itself is an
    infinitely fractured belief that can hardly put its own home in order. The
    numerous islamic sects are at each other’s throats; sub-sects and schools
    despise one another as much as they hate the non-muslims. Hatred, not love,
    drives islam.

     We have to try and avoid the yoke of islamic slavery and its
    blinders that imprison a billion and half people by walls of superstition,
    hatred of others, and celebration of death.

     It is distressing to witness islam making headway in the
    traditionally non-islamic lands. Masses of brainwashed faithful, semi-literate
    muslims, badly underserved in their own native lands, are moving to countries
    where the “infidels” welcome them with material wealth denied to them
    in their own homeland, as well as the liberty to subvert the very societies
    that give them refuge.

     “you have the right to believe in stones
    brother, but not the right to throw them at me.”

    Get your facts
    right girls and boys .islam is not a religion. islam is a cult. In the pure
    definition of a robber cult. Ever wondered why they hate dogs ?

    Because dogs
    can sense thieves and evil…and mohammad was both plus a pedophile plus a rapist
    plus too much evil to list here.

    Started by a
    mass murderer and a legendary pedophile. if you still do not know this
    fundamental fact about islam it is not your fault. but you are starting to
    learn. welcome to the world-wide awakening on the islam cult. even Muslim men
    are starting to realize in their born into the islam cult imprisoned states
    what muslim women always knew behind their burkhas and scars but are too scared
    to say it .islam is evil. And evil is rising.

    Mother nature
    is trying her level best to eradicate islam from her body but it’s taking too
    much time.. Maybe we should give her a helping hand ..after all she taught us
    the secrets of the atom.. Time to use the atomic stuff to eradicate this evil.
    Once and for all. Let us give mother nature a helping hand before all her body
    gets covered with the islamic eczema and she has to wear a burkha…god forbid.

                  

    The dirtiest and
    filthiest stone in the world is in mecca.

    The faster we get rid of islam the better it is for all of us . Think of all
    the money we’ll save..

    A group of
    muslims is called “a fester of muslims.”.

    Let
    them build the mosque at ground zero. Taller than the towers. it’s fine. let
    bark Hussein oh!bama build a mosque on the white house lawns.. Taller than the
    white house. it’s fine. let prince Charles build one on the palace lawns.
    taller than the palace. it’s fine. let the pope build a mosque on the Vatican
    grounds. taller than the Vatican building. it’s fine .. The more mosques the better and the taller they are the better.. That
    is the only way common people will start seething at intrusive and evil islam.
    I predict that within a 100 years there will be no mosques left in this world
    and there will be no islam on the planet because saudi arabia and the muslim
    countries will be wiped out by the anger of the rest of the planet’s non muslim
    people. Islam is in it’s death swirl. but it is dying with a lot of blood and
    shouts. but it is definitely dying.. The mask of religion it has been hiding
    behind will soon be lifted off by the courts around the world.. People
    including muslims who actually think out of the box of islam are starting to
    see islam for what it is. Islam is a robber cult started by a women-hating mass
    murderer and a legendary pedophile amongst other things. Islam’s days are
    numbered.. Let us help them build their mosques so we can pull them down
    en-masse. Their daggers are out but we have our bulldozers and our logic.
    Do not be afraid to call islam evil or dirty or filthy or gutter creed slime.
    The koran calls all other faiths and people and colors very dirty names . Black
    people are raisin-heads and only to be slaves even if muslim in filthy islam.
    Jews are pigs and monkeys according to creepy islam. And the list is endless.
    Read it for yourselves. Go ahead feel free .check out who you are in the gutter
    slime of islam. These dirty degenerate terms were cooked up on a daily basis by
    that total PSYCHO mohammad in the desert heat around nothing but sand and lots
    of spare time. moha-mad boy is the classic textbook case of an idle mind and
    hands being the devil’s workshop.

    Excessive praying is a sign of laziness.
    islam has no prayer actually. islam has just a bunch of slogans about a cooked
    up evil nut called allah who’ll kill them if they didn’t and how stupid everyone
    else is. if islam had not been cooked up and mo-boy had not had such an active
    and evil imagination arabs would have petered out and got lost in the testicles
    of decent men. but this did not happen and islam is now such a problem because
    decent men have been deceived by it . the flashpoint is being reached. dark
    times are coming. decent men will have to fight too. can you imagine this
    lovely planet without islam. islam is a heritage vandal. like a rampant
    genetically defective monkey in a china shop. and rabid to boot. think of all
    the cultures of majestic india left in place instead of this mess you see in
    the name of murderers . real majestic india is and was pre-islam vandalism.
    think of beautiful europe if these muslim monkeys had not been invented in the
    desert heat and dust .think of all the buddhist art in stone islam has deprived
    us of appreciating. the world trade centre was magnificent. destroyed by islam.
    according to islam only arabic scribblings is art and the bigger allah is
    written the more beautiful it is …..yeah sure ! islam needs to be put to sleep.
    i can’t imagine the blood-shed but it will have to happen.
    primitive man will surface from modern man to challenge and lance once and for
    all the primitive cult of islam at it’s own gutter level. islam is the next
    small pox this planet has to eradicate. once islam is out of the planetary
    system pc will once again be cool and good manners. watch !

    The spreading of Islam by the sword, which by some estimates left 270 million
    non-muslims like you and me dead and millions more like us enslaved over the
    past 14 centuries, is a historical fact that is sanitized from most public
    school and university textbooks.
    The tolerance of Islamism intolerance is not tolerance but cultural suicide.
    Because Muslim men don’t see enough of women, little boys begin to look awfully
    pretty.

  3. docmusic
    2012-04-05 at 6:20 am

    It’s either nuclear weapons or islam. We have to choose.
    Without nuclear weapons islam will never be wiped out …and by wiped out i
    mean WIPED OUT !!!  Only AFTER islam is WIPED OUT can we even think of a
    nuclear weapon free world. Look around you at these monkeys … can’t you see
    where they are taking us as a species ? islam is leading the planet to a non-
    stop blood bath …slowly and surely …and without nuclear weapons islam’s
    march will never be stopped.

    Someone has to start bombing the monkeys sometime …. i have a
    feeling that China will be the first to bite back on islam’s arse. ….
    then free for all….. we live in interesting times…. our generation will see
    the death of islam….but how it will happen will be worth watching.
    Intelligence has a way of waking up and crushing the moronic ,
    however vicious and barbaric. The thing to actually wonder is how
    Mecca and Medina will be pulverised. How will we do it ? And which year? That
    will be the exact beginning of a new era of peace. 

    i have a feeling somewhere around some table some people in high
    and right places are looking at this solution. And i have a feeling they
    compromise a lot of different people from all over the globe. Intelligence is
    Good. Intelligence is Cool. islam is neither. Hence islam will literally
    dissolve. Without mecca and medina there is no islam. Period.

    After islam is Irradicated we can think about nuclear disarmamment
    and all things peacefull and noble. Till then we have to wait . We have to.
    There is no option. Muslims want us all dead and we want to live…. got any
    brighter ideas?

    Cheers !!  

  4. docmusic
    2012-04-05 at 6:20 am

    It’s either nuclear weapons or islam. We have to choose.
    Without nuclear weapons islam will never be wiped out …and by wiped out i
    mean WIPED OUT !!!  Only AFTER islam is WIPED OUT can we even think of a
    nuclear weapon free world. Look around you at these monkeys … can’t you see
    where they are taking us as a species ? islam is leading the planet to a non-
    stop blood bath …slowly and surely …and without nuclear weapons islam’s
    march will never be stopped.

    Someone has to start bombing the monkeys sometime …. i have a
    feeling that China will be the first to bite back on islam’s arse. ….
    then free for all….. we live in interesting times…. our generation will see
    the death of islam….but how it will happen will be worth watching.
    Intelligence has a way of waking up and crushing the moronic ,
    however vicious and barbaric. The thing to actually wonder is how
    Mecca and Medina will be pulverised. How will we do it ? And which year? That
    will be the exact beginning of a new era of peace. 

    i have a feeling somewhere around some table some people in high
    and right places are looking at this solution. And i have a feeling they
    compromise a lot of different people from all over the globe. Intelligence is
    Good. Intelligence is Cool. islam is neither. Hence islam will literally
    dissolve. Without mecca and medina there is no islam. Period.

    After islam is Irradicated we can think about nuclear disarmamment
    and all things peacefull and noble. Till then we have to wait . We have to.
    There is no option. Muslims want us all dead and we want to live…. got any
    brighter ideas?

    Cheers !!  

Comments are closed.