Into the Spider Hole

December 16, 2003

Sometimes campaigns are won or loss on the issues. Other times, campaigns are won or loss on the events that simply take them over. The capture of Saddam Hussein looks like an early Christmas gift to the Bush administration and is swinging through the pins of Democratic primary like a bowling ball on league night. 

For Howard Dean, whose one trick pony in the campaign so far has been his opposition to the war in Iraq is, at least according to Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and David Broder, under a “potentially uncomfortable spotlight.”

Timing is everything in politics and Dean’s first really tough week on the campaign featured both highs and lows. First was last week’s endorsement from Al Gore. It was a huge photo opportunity. But by the time Dean embarked on giving what was hailed as his first big foreign policy speech in the wake of the capture of Saddam Hussein, a lot had changed. Then came the pile on.

The low point came like an inside fastball in the form of a photo op between Dean and the mostly forgettable former Clinton Secretary of State Warren Christopher. This photo op did very little to overturn the perception that Dean is weak on foreign policy. And the only sound byte that will ever be seen again from this speech was a pithy one. “The capture of Saddam is a good thing which I hope very much will help keep our soldiers safer, said Dean. “But the capture of Saddam has not made America safer.”

As if on cue, the candidate that Al Gore so quickly stabbed in the back last week when Dean was riding so high, threw off the shackles and used the opportunity to fire across Dean’s bow. Sen. Joe Lieberman seized his moment, his Alamo, to fight back against the seemingly Teflon Dean. “The fact is that if Howard Dean had his way,” Lieberman told NBC’s Tim Russert. “Saddam Hussein would still be in power today, not in prison.”

Lieberman went on to add in his next salvo that Dean “has climbed into his own spider hole of denial." And why not, Lieberman really has nothing to lose at this point. And win or lose, don’t be surprised if, during the real campaign, you see those clips more times than the Zupruder film.

But even worse for Dean was the altered nature of his speech. Take away the awkward Warren Christopher moment and the ‘Al Gore-ization’ of Dean was well under way-the speech actually had some Al Gore editing touches according to The New York Times. In the wake of Saddam’s capture a clear boredom and policy quagmire settled in on a somewhat muted Dean during his first big foreign policy speech.

Unfortunately, as David Brooks writes in The New York Times, “Dean is not a modern-day Woodrow Wilson. He is not a mushy idealist who dreams of a world government. Instead, he spoke of international institutions as if they were big versions of the National Governors Association, as places where pragmatic leaders can go to leverage their own resources and solve problems.”

By trying to demonstrate just how sober and “presidential” he could look while giving a real live grown up speech he may end up losing some of his more rabid supporters. The new Dean sounded impressively serious yet seriously restrained.

Sen. John Kerry added that Dean’s big speech was “proof that all the advisers in the world can't give Howard Dean the military and foreign policy experience, leadership skills, or diplomatic temperament necessary to lead this country through dangerous times."

Dean tried to show that major international events unfolding without a political or strategic timetable wouldn’t alter the fundamentals of his upstart campaign. But the speech was deeply influenced by the capture of Saddam and it was like taking the wind out of a ship’s sails. You can almost hear his loyal base wondering why Dean’s new friends and advisors won’t ‘let Dean be Dean.’ If you didn’t know better you would think that Al Gore himself “Quantum Leaped”, Scott Bakula style, right into Howard Dean.

To put this in perspective, the early political fallout from the capture of what many referred to, as the crown jewel in the war, is surely good news for George W. Bush. A snap Washington Post-ABC News poll found that approval over Bush’s handling of Iraq jumped 10 points to 58 percent instantly. Bush also jumped 4 points in overall job approval to 57 percent.

The Bush team probably wishes it were now November 2004, fortunately for us there are 11 long months left until the election. The biggest problem for Dean, come 2004, may not be that Saddam was finally caught. Dean’s biggest problem might be that he’s been caught in Al Gore’s web and is dragging him into a spider hole as we speak.

Jackson Murphy