Bush Has Stronger Support, Extends Lead Over Kerry in Latest Poll
By Jimmy Moore
Talon News
May 12, 2004

In a new presidential election poll that was taken after the Iraqi prison abuse scandal was revealed to the public, President George W. Bush has widened his lead and is still expected to defeat likely Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the November election.

The latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows Bush handily leading a three-way race against Kerry 46 percent to 41 percent, with independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader garnering 5 percent.

However, even in a two-man election, Bush is still ahead of Kerry by a margin of 47-44.

This latest poll indicates an increase of one percentage point in the president's support over the April 16-22 IBD/TIPP poll.

Although the overall number was only slightly higher for Bush, in the key battleground states for this election, Bush opened up a significant lead over Kerry.

In the mid-April poll, Bush led Kerry by only 3 points. However, in the latest poll, the president's lead tripled to 9 percentage points over Kerry in the key battleground states 49-40.

Among independent voters, Bush and Kerry have nearly identical support, with 40 percent standing with Bush and 39 percent going with Kerry.

Interestingly, the latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, which measures the leadership ability of the president, shows Bush's rating rose 4.5 percentage points from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May.

TIPP president Raghavan Mayur, who serves as IBD's polling agent, said the results of the poll show that Bush has withstood and has even improved his numbers through some very difficult circumstances that have been thrown his way in recent weeks.

"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," Mayur observed. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."

One noteworthy aspect of the poll is the fact that Bush's supporters seem to be a lot more excited about him that Kerry's supporters are about the Massachusetts senator.

Among Bush supporters, 68 percent say they support Bush strongly. Conversely, a mere 38 percent of Kerry supporters support him strongly.

Another startling part of the poll is that support from the party faithful is much more prevalent among Republicans for Bush than Democrats for Kerry.

Nine out of ten Republicans polled say they will definitely be voting for Bush compared with 77 percent of Democrats who will cast their vote for Kerry.

In fact, one out of every eight Democrats expressed an interest in voting for Bush in November instead of Kerry.

Of those polled who are "very satisfied" with their choice for president, 42 percent of Republican voters said they were compared with just 11 percent of Democratic voters.

Although the vast majority of this poll does not bode well for Kerry, there were a few glimmers of hope for his campaign.

While Bush has wrapped up a tremendous amount of support early, Kerry has begun to attract new voters to his campaign in recent weeks, with 70 percent of recent deciders going with Kerry compared with 24 percent for Bush.

Mayur says Bush's surprising numbers in light of the Iraqi prison controversy can be explained by four distinct reasons.

He points to the improvements in the economy, including the 1.3 million new jobs added in the past eight months, as well as the positive effect the tax cuts have had.

Also, the Bush campaign's strategy of targeting advertising and appearances in the Midwest, which includes a lot of the so-called swing state, has seemed to pay off.

Bush's lead has risen sharply in the Midwest, going from a 45-40 lead in April to 51-36 in May.

"Each hand you shake is worth 100 votes," Mayur explained.

Then Mayur said Bush's leadership skills are paying great dividends, despite the difficult times, with eight out of ten Americans portraying the president as a strong leader.

"And as things get tougher in Iraq, we expect more Americans to gravitate toward him," he predicted.

Finally, overall support for the war in Iraq has not wavered much.

Fifty-seven percent support the war, including 52 percent who say the world is safer as a result of American action.

Regarding the war on terrorism, 47 percent say America is winning while 36 percent believe the U.S. is losing.

Although tremendous pressure has been placed on the Bush administration in the wake of the Iraq prison abuse ordeal, Mayur states Bush is not being blamed by the American people for it.

"Americans understand that a handful of people were responsible for the incidents and perhaps have accepted Bush's apology," Mayur concluded.

The poll of 981 adults, including 823 registered voters, was conducted May 2-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.